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Annex 55 Reliability of Energy Efficient Building Retrofitting - Probability Assessment of Performance & Cost (RAP-RETRO)

Status: Ongoing (2009-2013)

Operating Agent: Dr Carl-Eric Hagentoft, Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, SE-412 96 Göteborg, Sweden




The scope of the project is to develop and provide decision support data and tools for energy retrofitting measures. The tools will be based on probabilistic methodologies for prediction of energy use, life cycle cost and functional performance. The impact of uncertainty on the performance and costs will be considered. Methods based on probability give powerful tools that can provide us with reliable ranges for the outcome.

The ultimate outcome of the project will be to develop knowledge and tools that support the use of probability based design strategies in retrofitting of buildings to ensure that the anticipated energy benefits can be realized. These will give reliable information about the true outcome of retrofitting measures regarding energy use, cost and functional performance.

The principle objective will hence be realized by merging hygrothermal building physics with probability and economic analyses. The methods developed will then be applied to optimize energy retrofitting methods.

The main objectives of the project are to:

  • Develop a common framework for probabilistic assessment of energy retrofitting measures
  • Develop and validate probabilistic tools for energy use, life cycle cost and hygrothermal performance
  • Collect and analyze data in order to create stochastic data sets
  • Apply and demonstrate probabilistic methodology on (at least) five real life case studies, with a focus on residential buildings


To be confirmed


Publications Annex 55

To be confirmed